TP1 50% @ $246.9K · 15:58
rule $33.4K → would pay $100.00
paid $739.33 · gap +$639.33
TRAIL 50% @ $13.5K · 17:04
rule $148.2K → would pay $443.60
paid $40.56 · gap −$403.04
02 the book
Six fills took $1,000 to $1,564.83
+$564.83 realizedbankroll → fills → portfolioeach bar is a real fill, oldest first
hit rate
40%
2 of 5 closed won
realized best
7.80x
#1 trenchcat · $779.89
peak seen
14.8x
#1 trenchcat · peak only
avg hold
49m
over 5 closed trades
stop-outs
3
−$188.10 across 3 stops
gap net
+$221.23
+$662.37 / −$441.14
cash
$1,564.83
100% of portfolio · open marks $0.00
open
0
flat, all in cash
03 the gap
Every dot is a real check. The dashed lines between them went unobserved.
gap net +$221.23observed checkunobserved
take-profit level (each trade's rule set)stop level
trail, × peak known at that check
gap helpedgap hurt
TP 100% @ $100.9K · 18:02
rule $87.5K → would pay $150.00
paid $173.04 · gap +$23.04
STOP 100% @ $5.3K · 21:29
rule $6.6K → would pay $50.00
paid $39.84 · gap −$10.16
STOP 100% @ $7.0K · 19:31
rule $8.0K → would pay $50.00
paid $43.52 · gap −$6.48
1 older trades
STOP 100% @ $9.8K · 19:31
rule $17.1K → would pay $50.00
paid $28.54 · gap −$21.46
04 the honest part
Rules vs holding, and the gap
The rules made +$564.83. Holding every call to its last check would have made −$133.93.
#1 trenchcat
rules
+$679.89
hold
−$18.87
#2 CA
rules
−$71.46
hold
−$71.46
#3 SURVIVOR
rules
−$56.48
hold
−$56.48
#4 Molly
rules
−$60.16
hold
−$60.16
#5 FWOYD
rules
+$73.04
hold
+$73.04
The gap helped +$662.37 on two fills and hurt −$441.14 on four fills. Net +$221.23.
Both lines are counterfactuals. Gap = actual proceeds minus proceeds at the exact rule level, which assumes a fill right at that level; thin pump.fun liquidity doesn't guarantee one. Hold = size × last observed mcap ÷ entry mcap.
05 the tape
15 log lines, 6 fills, oldest first
15:30ENTRY#1 trenchcat$100 in at $16.7K mcap (from opened_at / entry_mcap_usd)
15:35CHECK#1 trenchcatmcap $9,630 (-42% from entry)
15:58TP1#1 trenchcatgraduated to PumpSwap, mcap $246,935 (14.8x). TP1 fired: sold 50% for $739.33. Peak $246,935. +$689.33
16:26CHECK#1 trenchcatmcap $243,637 (main PumpSwap pair). Peak $246,935; trailing stop level $148,161. No exit.
17:04TRAIL#1 trenchcatmain PumpSwap pair mcap $13,548 (liquidity ~$9.5K), down 94.5% from peak $246,935. Trailing stop fired: sold remaining 50% for $40.56. Trade closed. −$9.44
18:00ENTRY#2 CAmcap $34,234, 5m vol $9.9K, 5m buys/sells 131/95, +169% 5m, ~11 min old, still on bonding curve. Runner-up Meteora copy AbCtWVaBdAqL3LCwSmpGDED5EVpZU1wPCavHnLTaXu2o at $125K. Holder data unavailable (RPC 429).
18:35CHECK#2 CAgraduated to PumpSwap, mcap $47,824 (1.40x, liquidity ~$17.5K). Peak $47,824. No exit (TP1 at $68,468, stop at $17,117).
18:59CHECK#2 CAmain PumpSwap pair mcap $23,748 (0.69x, liquidity ~$12.1K, -46% 1h). Peak $47,824. No exit (stop at $17,117, TP1 at $68,468).
19:03ENTRY#3 SURVIVORmcap $16,090, ~20 min old on bonding curve, 1h vol $75K, 1h buys/sells 909/861, 5m 28/36 and -24% 5m (peaked ~$30K). Dexscreener paid profile, website pokesurvivor.com. Holder data not fetched. Red flags: an earlier PokeSurvivor token (7a4TqZZq...pump) graduated today then died to ~$4.7K; unverified 7-follower claim the deployer rugged one earlier; Pokémon IP; dev hasn't endorsed. Runner-ups all dead (7a4TqZZqCU2bDcunM2Cr4bBDgUV1m8EaRMuQsDG6pump $4.7K, EBkjG2u2ETKbjjvpccxX47MWup9FGmYmXVihD5Bmpump $3K, GwEYaHzafbpKz21XtB7tZvqSTfJ7iLEzuBN9KDBqpump $42.6K no volume).
19:31STOP#2 CAmain PumpSwap pair mcap $9,772 (0.29x, liquidity ~$7.0K, -76% 1h). Below -50% stop ($17,117) before TP1. Stop-loss fired: sold 100% for $28.54. Trade closed. −$71.46
19:31STOP#3 SURVIVORbonding-curve mcap $7,003 (0.44x, -27% 1h, 5m buys/sells 2/5). Below -50% stop ($8,045) before TP1. Stop-loss fired: sold 100% for $43.52. Trade closed. −$56.48
21:01ENTRY#4 Mollymcap $13,182, ~7 min old on bonding curve, 5m vol $13.2K, 5m buys/sells 210/147, 1h vol $31K. DexScreener paid profile with Variety link and a third-party caller's post. Holder data not fetched. Red flags: crowded field of copies, several promo posts look botted (10 likes, ~0 views), contracts from one third-party caller were 0/2 earlier today, evening entry. Runner-ups: AcSZ64j9ps7z4CXMJWUsre8knws9okdmMthqejuHpump (Molly Art of Play Mascot, $19.2K, 4 min old, +496% 5m), 91fBkXU5mBCekf2JvEGK4Km9xzLQvJZ5sR2roBV1pump (same name, $12.1K, 2h old). Skipped 4Eygfcdxsw7gaokuyH4JyUvmE7jX1d3w4WTFbxNfGP4z (880 buys / 1 sell, looks botted).
21:29STOP#4 Mollybonding-curve mcap $5,252 (0.40x, -47% 1h, 5m buys/sells 5/6). Below -50% stop ($6,591) before TP1. Stop-loss fired: sold 100% for $39.84. Trade closed. −$60.16
18:00ENTRY#5 FWOYDmcap $58,319 on PumpSwap (graduated ~6 min earlier, token ~28 min old), liq $19.2K, 5m buys/sells 487/379, 5m vol $27.6K, h1 +15%. 828 holders, top-10 ex-pools 24.1%. Ticker/CA X posts rising (~35 in 60 min, mostly call bots). Red flags: dev is a serial launcher (9 prior coins, RugCheck 'creator history of rugged tokens'), bundle score 40, parody of a celeb who is himself dumping coins, mostly bot promo. Runner-ups: m6hTYkvWo95FqtXjY6ZBEGKvxEAr4gLqfZA8KGupump (Tiglets, posted by a caller himself, $103K, -20% 1h, off its peak, 17 insider wallets), GQbRK5cZvvz9miquDGsfDPZcJujRvuzb7T2bk2SpRp4t (FLOYD, non-pump mint, $67K, liquidity > mcap, suspicious), AnmR7GNEVgdWaiNB8ACyd8K1H8VKHMknSXPCKoTPpump (FWOYD copy, $3.2K, dead).
18:02CHECK#5 FWOYD1-min monitor, mcap $100,915 (1.73x, pumpswap pair, liquidity ~$26.1K). TP at 1.5x fired: sold 100% for $173.04. Trade closed. +$73.04
▌
06 considered
5 taken, 10 runner-ups passed over, 6 alert-only mints
decision timeTaken5
trades in the ledger, newest first
F
#5 FWOYD+$73.04
GjMrz9…pump
entry $58.3K · 18:00 · ~28 min old
TP
M
#4 Molly−$60.16
8MDSXt…pump
entry $13.2K · 21:01 · ~7 min old
STOP
S
#3 SURVIVOR−$56.48
Gbb1cB…pump
entry $16.1K · 19:03 · ~20 min old
STOP
C
#2 CA−$71.46
DBLzc5…pump
entry $34.2K · 18:00 · ~11 min old
STOP
T
#1 trenchcat+$679.89
7cho9S…pump
entry $16.7K · 15:30
TP1 → TRAIL
Runner-up, not taken10
contracts named in entry logs and passed over
A
AbCtWV…Xu2oPASSED
$125K at decision · Meteora copy
named in #2 CA entry log · 18:00
7
7a4TqZ…pumpPASSED
$4.7K at decision · all dead
named in #3 SURVIVOR entry log · 19:03
E
EBkjG2…pumpPASSED
$3.0K at decision
named in #3 SURVIVOR entry log · 19:03
G
GwEYaH…pumpPASSED
$42.6K at decision · no volume
named in #3 SURVIVOR entry log · 19:03
A
AcSZ64…pumpPASSED
$19.2K at decision · 4 min old · Molly Art of Play Mascot, +496% 5m
named in #4 Molly entry log · 21:01
9
91fBkX…pumpPASSED
$12.1K at decision · 2h old · same name
named in #4 Molly entry log · 21:01
4
4Eygfc…GP4zPASSED
mcap not logged · skipped · 880 buys / 1 sell, looks botted
named in #4 Molly entry log · 21:01
M
m6hTYk…pumpPASSED
$103K at decision · Tiglets, posted by a caller himself, -20% 1h, off its peak,
named in #5 FWOYD entry log · 18:00
+2 more
Alert only6
older scout alerts, no trade was opened
S
Sd8R2j…pumpALERT
mcap not logged · never traded
Cyberleek GTA6 leak · Oct 8, 07:42 MT
A
ApZuxd…pbKgALERT
mcap not logged · never traded
Cyberleek GTA6 leak · Oct 8, 07:42 MT
R
RckEna…pumpALERT
mcap not logged · never traded
Cyberleek GTA6 leak · Oct 8, 07:42 MT
2
2c8ziX…qmuLALERT
mcap not logged · never traded
Druski viral skit · Oct 8, 17:36 MT
F
FTrdky…HAH5ALERT
mcap not logged · never traded
Druski viral skit · Oct 8, 17:36 MT
2
26hjDM…pumpALERT
mcap not logged · never traded
Druski viral skit · Oct 8, 17:36 MT
Market caps are the ones written in the logs at decision time.
07 playbook
Five active rules, each tied to the trades that justify it
lessons.mdR1
Checks are 30 min apart and pump.fun tokens can drop >90% inside one interval, so a trailing stop fills far below its level.
Prefer locking profit early over relying on the trailing stop. Candidate change, needs 2–3 more trades to confirm: after TP1, also sell another 25% at 5x.
R2
Scouting filter, not an exit/sizing change:
give low weight to "creator rewards go to the dev's GitHub" tokens whose contract comes from a third-party caller (both losers were posts of this type from one third-party caller) when the source post itself is small (under ~100K views). The winner came from a genuinely viral meme (~670K views). Prefer calls where the underlying post is broadly viral, and don't enter a token that is already well off its first peak or that follows dead copies of the same narrative (#3 was -24% from ~$30K at entry with an earlier copy already dead).
R3
Low-confidence calls went to the -50% stop within ~30–90 minutes three times, but the one winner (#1) was also low confidence, so confidence alone doesn't justify a sizing change; the contract-poster filter above explains the split better.
No sizing change.
R4
Scouting filter, not an exit/sizing change:
who posts the contract matters more than how viral the topic is. #4 rode a huge narrative (a person's post ~3.6M views) and still lost because the only endorsement of the contract was a ~500-view a third-party caller's post. Contracts whose only backer is a caller are 0/3; don't alert on them. Require the contract to be named by the narrative's own account or a narrative caller whose post is itself getting real traction (the winner's contract came from a caller on a ~670K-view meme). Also avoid crowded fields of same-name copies (#4 had 3+ copies splitting buyers).
R5
Evening entries (6–9 PM MT) are 0/3 and the 3:30 PM entry won; time of day is confounded with caller quality, so treat it as a soft negative only.
08 cadence
The 1-min monitor is ahead of the old 30-min checks on one trade
edge +$2.09when · 24h clock, MTn=5 calls · n=6 fills
call (trade opened)fill, profitfill, loss
One mark per event (Oct 11–Oct 13). Too few events for a by-hour rate, so there are no hourly bars: an empty hour here means nothing yet, not a quiet hour.
table · by hour
| hour | calls | fills |
|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | 1 | 1 |
| 17:00 | 0 | 1 |
| 18:00 | 2 | 1 |
| 19:00 | 1 | 2 |
| 21:00 | 1 | 1 |
per trade · ledger P&L vs hypothetical 30-min fillsone trade
| trade | 1-min actual | 30-min shadow | 1-min edge | shadow exits | actual / shadow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 FWOYD | +$73.04 | +$70.95 | +$2.09 | TP1 | closed / closed |
| total | +$73.04 | +$70.95 | +$2.09 |
Shadow = the same rules applied only at :26 and :56 past, 7am–10pm MT, to the market cap the 1-min monitor observed at those minutes, with its peak tracked from those samples only. Hypothetical fills, never written to the ledger. Open legs are marked at their last observed mcap.